Seeking Guidance...

Racing
1

I have a small question, that I hope is appropriate to ask. I have a 2 yr old, Mr. Prospective ES, who is a stakes winner.(G3 Kindergarten Stakes)

My question is; how do you know if it is time to try stiff competition? I don’t want to make a rookie mistake and put him in a race where he doesn’t belong.

He won his last race, an open allowance race. He beat a stakes winner, stakes placed filly, who had won a GII. Against the boys in a similiar allowance race she ran second, but she is a filly.

He also beat a stakes placed colt, who also finished 4th in a GII.

And lastly, he beat a 2 time GI winner, but that horse finished last so I’m sure it was just having an off day.

I was trying to decide between the Champagne Stakes, GI.(Right after Breeders cup so I figure the toughest would be out.) Or. the Nashua stakes, GIII.

Also how big of a difference does 6.5 furlongs make to 8 furlongs? Should I try him out in a longer allowance race first?

Just seeking a little guidance and info on how the established and experienced stables decide when is the right time to try a tougher race.

Thank you in advance.

2

For me, it mainly just depends on the race specifics (i.e. whether the 6f race is on dirt vs. the 8f on turf, or vice-verse). MOST horses have stamina at least to a mile, so stretching out to 8f shouldn’t necessarily HURT the horse.

For non-huge stables, money is also a factor, though presumably if this horse is a SW he’s earned enough that you can afford a stakes entry fee for him.

Beyond that - who knows. :wink: He’s a 2yo, they’re all insanely unpredictable and hard to gage, especially since they’re constantly in the process of maturing…horses he’s faced and beaten easily a month ago might have hit their running stride and whip the pants off of him if he ran against them again…or not. It’s anyone’s guess.

Sorry this wasn’t too helpful, I just generally go with common sense (i.e. if a horse seems to hate turf I try and avoid it, and so on) and gut feeling (which usually consists of “enh, what the hell, we’ll see what happens” :wink:).

3

Good points. It is the same surface that he likes, dirt and he has been pretty consistent 6 of 9 in the top three. I think I will wait, and if my horses have earned enough to keep me over $150K after entry fees I will try it. Otherwise no.
:smiley:

Thank you Shanti.