Seeking Guidance...

I have a small question, that I hope is appropriate to ask. I have a 2 yr old, Mr. Prospective ES, who is a stakes winner.(G3 Kindergarten Stakes)

My question is; how do you know if it is time to try stiff competition? I don’t want to make a rookie mistake and put him in a race where he doesn’t belong.

He won his last race, an open allowance race. He beat a stakes winner, stakes placed filly, who had won a GII. Against the boys in a similiar allowance race she ran second, but she is a filly.

He also beat a stakes placed colt, who also finished 4th in a GII.

And lastly, he beat a 2 time GI winner, but that horse finished last so I’m sure it was just having an off day.

I was trying to decide between the Champagne Stakes, GI.(Right after Breeders cup so I figure the toughest would be out.) Or. the Nashua stakes, GIII.

Also how big of a difference does 6.5 furlongs make to 8 furlongs? Should I try him out in a longer allowance race first?

Just seeking a little guidance and info on how the established and experienced stables decide when is the right time to try a tougher race.

Thank you in advance.

For me, it mainly just depends on the race specifics (i.e. whether the 6f race is on dirt vs. the 8f on turf, or vice-verse). MOST horses have stamina at least to a mile, so stretching out to 8f shouldn’t necessarily HURT the horse.

For non-huge stables, money is also a factor, though presumably if this horse is a SW he’s earned enough that you can afford a stakes entry fee for him.

Beyond that - who knows. :wink: He’s a 2yo, they’re all insanely unpredictable and hard to gage, especially since they’re constantly in the process of maturing…horses he’s faced and beaten easily a month ago might have hit their running stride and whip the pants off of him if he ran against them again…or not. It’s anyone’s guess.

Sorry this wasn’t too helpful, I just generally go with common sense (i.e. if a horse seems to hate turf I try and avoid it, and so on) and gut feeling (which usually consists of “enh, what the hell, we’ll see what happens” :wink:).

Good points. It is the same surface that he likes, dirt and he has been pretty consistent 6 of 9 in the top three. I think I will wait, and if my horses have earned enough to keep me over $150K after entry fees I will try it. Otherwise no.

Thank you Shanti.