POLL: Re-calculate breed rankings?

Breeding
1

Should breed rankings be re-calculated?

  • Yes
  • No

0 voters

So I was thinking today on my commute about breed rankings. Right now they primarily reward producers of early bloomers. 2YOs get “extra credit” for the same achievements (except MSW, which counts the same regardless of age).

Is that really fair, though? What if your stallion/mare throws amazing jumpers, who therefore wouldn’t really do well until 3 and up? What if you’re breeding for longevity so you don’t aim for 2yo stars but would like your babies to last until 6+? Etc.

Which got me to thinking, rather than reward based simply on age (which was a bit arbitrary based on the hypothesis that 2yo races are more competitive/harder to win, so therefore it’s a bigger achievement), horses could be awarded points based on each year of racing, with breed rankings averaged out over all foals’ years.

So, hypothetically, the following points could be awarded:
Multiple stakes wins in a year: 15 points
Single stakes win in a year: 12 points
Multiple stakes places in a year: 10 points
Single stakes place in a year: 8 points
Multiple wins in a year: 3 points
Single win in a year: 1 point

Using a mare (for an easier example, since she’s got less foals), let’s take Move Boldly’s foals:
Debatable Move: 3 racing years, 31 points

  • Single stakes place at 2: 8 points
  • Multiple stakes wins at 3: 15 points
  • Single stakes place at 4: 8 points

Pyromaniac: 5 racing years, 2 points

  • Unplaced at 2: 0 points
  • Single win at 3: 1 point
  • Single win at 4: 1 point
  • Unplaced at 5: 0 points
  • Non-winner at 6: 0 points

Pyrotechnics: 4 racing years, 12 points

  • Single stakes place at 3: 8 points
  • Single win at 4: 1 point
  • Multiple wins at 5: 3 points
  • Non-winner at 6: 0 points

Strawberryswing: 3 racing years, 16 points

  • Non-winner at 2: 0 points
  • Multiple stakes winner at 3: 15 points
  • Single win at 4: 1 point

Sir Irish Knight: 2 racing years, 3 points

  • Non-winner at 2: 0 points
  • Multiple wins at 3: 3 points

Artic High: 1 racing year, 1 point

  • Single win at 3: 1 point

Overall, she has 6 foals who’ve raced a total of 18 years and earned 65 points. So her average points would be 3.6.

Obviously the breed ranking numbers and/or points for racing achievements would need to be tweaked a bit since she’s gold ranked (with 8.2 points), but when you look in more detail, her best foals aren’t all that consistent over time - Debatable Move was, but the rest were somewhat iffy.

This is all just what sprang to mind on the bus this morning, so I’m open to feedback, but it occurred to me that breed rankings could be falsely optimistic (or pessimistic) if you have especially brilliant but inconsistent horses. Personally speaking, I’d rather know that a horse is only silver ranked but will consistently produce horses who win year after year as opposed to appearing amazing and gold (or platinum) ranked based on one foal having a good season once. (This is especially true for stallions, but also for mares.)

So…thoughts? Suggestions for improvements?

2

In contrast, compare the stats for Atlantis’ foals:
Prospero: 4 racing years, 37 points

  • SW at 2: 12 points
  • MSW at 3: 15 points
  • MSP at 4: 10 points
  • Non-winner at 5: 0 points

Mummify: 5 racing years, 22 points

  • Multiple stakes placed at 2: 10 points
  • MSW at 3: 15 points
  • Multiple winner at 4: 3 points
  • Winner at 5: 1 point
  • Non-winner at 6: 0 points

Timaeus: 3 racing years, 15 points

  • Multiple winner at 2: 3 points
  • SW at 3: 12 points
  • Non-winner at 4: 0 points

Maya: 3 racing years, 23 points

  • Winner at 2: 1 point
  • Multiple stakes placed at 3: 10 points
  • SW at 4: 12 points

Single Sprice: 2 racing years, 8 points

  • Stakes placed at 2: 8 points
  • Non-winner at 3: 0 points

She’s got 5 raced foals, with 17 years’ racing and 105 points. Her new average would be 6.1. You can see that her foals are more consistent over time, though.

3

Thinking aloud, the only concern I have is horses getting to hasbeen status. It seems a shame to penalize the parents just because you try racing your horse longer than it wants to (and therefore when he was winning stakes at age 3 and 4, he can’t win anything at age 6). Perhaps the racing years used in the average points calculation could only count ages 2-4 and therefore any points earned beyond age 4 would be a bonus?

(In the above example, Atlantis would have only 14 racing years “count”, but still have 105 points, bringing her average up to 7.5. Move Boldly would have 14 years count and her average would be 4.6.)

4

sounds good to me, the best horses being those that throw the best foals, not just acouple of greats and the rest duds

Not sure Holly would like it, given Nightfight’s stellar rating at the moment :wink:

5

Sounds like a more realistic way of doing it, but like you said the methods may run into problems if horses run to an unnecessarily old age. You would see the effect of that alot of a mare has had alot of colts because people run colts longer if they don’t qualify for stud because you can’t really do anything with them once retired. This would have a big effect on the mares rating. Your idea of points being a bonus beyond the age of 4 sounds like a good idea

6

Technically it shouldn’t make a difference, yet, as his babies only have 1 year of racing under their belt. :wink: Time will tell if his stats would change dramatically in a couple of years when he has more foals on the track.

7

More thinking aloud - this could also be broken down further so that it takes into account how many times your horse raced in a year.

Say your mare has a colt, Joe. Parallel universe A has him owned by FF, so he gets raced 4 times at age 3, in completely random stakes races that he sucks at. Parallel universe B has him owned by you, his extremely optimistic breeder, who race him 20 times at age 3, in not-so-random stakes races that he sucks at. :wink: (Not that Joe sucks, per se, but for whatever reason, he’s being overfaced.)

Either way, he gets no credit for the year because he has no wins. But should he get less penalised by only trying stakes 4x and sucking at them rather than trying stakes 20x and sucking at them? If it’s just the measure of what he accomplished at age 3, it makes no difference. But if it were done as an average of racing starts rather than racing years, the 4 races with FF would hurt him less stat-wise than the 20 races with you.

Hope that makes sense, I’m on quite a few cold meds this week. (None of which are doing much, sadly.)

8

Would the people who voted (especially those who voted no) please weigh in? I’d like to know why people are in favour/against the idea.

9

I voted yes as it does seem that the rankings are heavily biased towards the younger racers. Having a more even spread give a clearer indication of a progenies ability.

10

This.  Sorry, I voted yesterday, but had to head to work and didn’t have time to explain why I voted.  But basically everything spudly said.

11

I voted yes because of the above reasons. I have a Stallion, Magic Glory, whose 2yo crop have tended to run like they’re racing in molasses, but who have come on a lot at 3+. Why should he be penalized because his 2yo’s couldn’t win a one-horse race, but, when they get to 3, a number of them have become MSW’s? They should get the same number of Rating Points, regardless of whether they are 2, 3, 4, or above. I also agree that while Points should continue being accumulated after they turn 5, the number of races they have run in either should not be included, or, if they are, maybe only half, i.e. if a horse ran in 10 races at 5+, for calculating Breed Rankings, it should only count as 5 races.

12

Tried to post yesterday but couldn’t .
I voted for it as it would be nice to have some idea of the longevity of certain bloodlines. As I’ve had several horses win Ch titles at 2 and then bomb at 3and up. It would be interesting to see who produces longer lived runners. And would be awesome for when my studs babies hit the track to see just how they are doing.

13

I voted yes for the same reasons as noted above.  I would much rather breed a horse for a long career than breed a horse that precocious with no/limited aged talent.

14

Question: Would it be possible to award points based on the number of wins/SWs rather than just whether or not they won more than once?

I think there a lot of highly ranked ponies (mares especially) that throw foals that can win two or three SWs. These ponies are sometimes ranked as high or more highly than mares who have foals that are really super successful on the track.

15

That would work better with breaking points down by actual number of races. So rather than giving an overall quality for the year, you’d award points based on each race and average them out for all the foals.

So if the points became (hypothetically):
Stakes win: 40 points
Stakes place: 20 points
Win: 10 points

(Let’s also assume that races at age 5 and up don’t count in the average.)

Our above examples would be:
Move Boldly’s foals:
Debatable Move: 25 races, 150 points

  • 2yo: 2 wins + 1 stakes place = 40 points
  • 3yo: 2 stakes wins = 80 points
  • 4yo: 1 win + 1 stakes place = 30 points

Pyromaniac: 20 races, 20 points

  • 2yo: 0 wins = 0 points
  • 3yo: 1 win = 10 points
  • 4yo: 1 win = 10 points
  • 5yo: 0 wins = 0 points
  • 6yo: 0 wins = 0 points

Pyrotechnics: 16 races, 50 points

  • 3yo: 1 stakes place = 20 points
  • 4yo: 1 win = 10 points
  • 5yo: 2 wins = 20 points
  • 6yo: 0 wins = 0 points

Strawberryswing: 23 races, 230 points

  • 2yo: 0 wins = 0 points
  • 3yo: 4 stakes wins + 3 stakes places = 220 points
  • 4yo: 1 win = 10 points

Sir Irish Knight: 33 races, 20 points

  • 2yo: 0 wins = 0 points
  • 3yo: 2 wins = 20 points

Artic High: 4 races, 10 points

  • 3yo: 1 win = 10 points

Overall, she has 6 foals who’ve raced a total of 121 races (that count) and earned 480 points. So her average points would be 3.96.

Atlantis’ foals:
Prospero: 33 races, 370 points

  • 2yo: 1 stakes win + 1 stakes place = 60 points
  • 3yo: 2 stakes wins + 6 stakes places = 200 points
  • 4yo: 1 win + 4 stakes places = 90 points
  • 5yo: 0 wins + 1 stakes place = 20 points

Mummify: 48 races, 300 points

  • 2yo: 6 wins + 3 stakes places = 120 points
  • 3yo: 1 win + 2 stakes wins + 2 stakes places = 130 points
  • 4yo: 4 wins = 40 points
  • 5yo: 1 win = 10 points
  • 6yo: 0 wins = 0 points

Timaeus: 33 races, 60 points

  • 2yo: 2 wins = 20 points
  • 3yo: 1 stakes win = 40 points
  • 4yo: 0 wins = 0 points

Maya: 37 races, 170 points

  • 2yo: 1 win = 10 points
  • 3yo: 6 wins + 2 stakes places = 100 points
  • 4yo: 1 stakes win + 1 stakes place = 60 points

Single Sprice: 12 races, 40 points

  • 2yo: 2 wins + 1 stakes place = 40 points
  • 3yo: 0 wins = 0 points

She’s got 5 raced foals, with 163 counted races and 940 points. Her new average would be 5.76.

Then perhaps our breed rankings would be something like:
0.0-1.0: Bronze
1.1-3.0: Silver
3.1-5.0: Gold
5.1+: Platinum

16

And just for the hell of it, I did Nightfight too.

  • Fake Number: 14 races, 70 points
  • Enyo: 22 races, 190 points
  • Black Star: 23 races, 260 points
  • Nightlight: 11 races, 60 points
  • Ardiente: 18 races, 160 points
  • Hopes Flight: 16 races, 120 points
  • Jett Black: 10 races, 100 points
  • Key Biscuit: 17 races, 220 points
  • Night of Storms: 10 races, 160 points
  • Dazzling Night: 3 races, 10 points
  • Darknight: 18 races, 40 points
  • Thanatos: 7 races, 0 points
  • Shadow Play: 5 races, 10 points
  • Glow in the Dark: 10 races, 200 points
  • Black Heartbreak: 22 races, 250 points
  • Inheritance: 20 races, 150 points
  • Burn Notice: 10 races, 10 points
  • Sponsored: 23 races, 460 points
  • Fightin The Smoke: 21 races, 360 points
  • Nightlit Haze: 17 races, 180 points
  • Buenos Aires: 15 races, 50 points
  • Kentucky Wildcat: 17 races, 70 points
  • Girlfight: 3 races, 0 points
  • Shailaja: 7 races, 0 points

So he has 24 foals who’ve raced a total of 339 times and earned 3,200 points. This gives him an average of 9.43. So the breed rankings may have to be adjusted for stallions since they have way more babies. :wink:

17

And for comparison, I did What’s It Worth. (Not going to list out all the foals because he has a ton.) He has 125 foals with 3,306 counted races who earned 31,510 points, giving him an average of 9.53.

Highland Rogue has 74 foals with 1,453 races who earned 15,410 points. This gives him an average of 10.60.

So perhaps for studs the breed ranking breakdown would be something like:
0.0-3.0: Bronze
3.1-5.0: Silver
5.1-8.0: Gold
8.1+: Platinum

Right now studs only need 10 raced foals to qualify for gold/platinum (though obviously all 10 foals would need to be amazing to get there). Since this is going by races more than foals, perhaps the requirement could be 300 races for gold and 500 for platinum? (This is assuming that most horses can race 10 times a year and a semi-popular stud would get 300 races within his first couple crops hitting the track. It would take a bit longer to get to platinum, but that seems fair - a stud shouldn’t earn platinum based on just one or two foal crops.)

18

So since this was actually pretty easy to tweak in the database with numbers, I now have exact comparisons if the above system were put in place. (I’ve only done studs so far.)

The following studs would go down in rank:
Silver -> Bronze:
Gallant Fox, Unbridled, Flash’s Image, Closing Time, Hope To Succeed, Worth The Wait, Government Secret, Whirlaway, Brazen Remark, Heza Gallant Gent, Seattle Sorcerer, Magic Man, Backseat Driver, Oscillation, Black Gold, Captain Jack, Who Says, As You Wish

Gold -> Silver:
Candidate, Run For It, Black Legend

The following studs would go up in rank:
Bronze -> Silver:
Count Me In, Robin Hood, Sir Lancelot, MakeMineManhattan, King David, Revenge, West Wind, Wonder’s Pride, Tryst of Fate, Prince of Wonder, Awesome Again, Almost Home, Gimme A Shot, Blue Ensign, Magic Glory, Gotta Go

Bronze -> Gold:
Beatyatoit

Silver -> Gold:
Cigar, Forget It, Turbo Tide, Resident Evil, Redwood Prince, Lucky Cigar, High On Love, Danzig, Silver Secrets, Conspiracy Theory, Romeo, Worth My While, Highland Magic, Foolhardy, The Black, Strike The Gold, Townsend Prince, Irish River, Highland Bandit, Bold Ruler, Lit de Justice, Jazz It Up, Highland Wizard

Gold -> Platinum:
Highland Rogue, What’s It Worth

All other studs would have the same ranking they have now.

19

I’ve setup a new breed ranking page that would show the breakdown of the proposed new rankings.

http://www.finalfurlong.org/breedrankings_new.php

Feel free to comment/suggest/etc.

20

I would request that we do include the 5yo season. I’ve had way too many that have perked up as old 4yos and 5yos. I think most people do tend to retire their ponies. Not including the 5yo season would disadvantage studs who do throws foals that mature late and favor those who mature early, since the 2yo season is counted when the late-bloomers are running too.