Still playing devil’s advocate here…you’re comparing apples to oranges…of the races you listed:
Nightfight finished off the board twice in those 9 starts (30% win, 78% on the board, 89% in the money).
Princely Moment, on the other hand, finished off the board 4 times (0% win, 33% on the board, 89% in the money).
Thus Nightfight having 4.3mil in earnings this year alone (and being stud qualified, and definitely worth 1.5mil+), and Princely Moment getting questions about the pricetag (having not even 1mil in earnings for this year).
The “argument” about PM’s price tag isn’t so much whether he’s worth the money (since he is a nice horse) but whether he stands a chance to earn back that money. Nightfight has proven himself able to win big stakes even at age 6, he’s won over 10mil lifetime, and is likely to bring in at least $50,000-$100,000 per year in stud fees, depending on what fee Holly sets for him and how his foals do. Even given that, Holly will likely still lose money on him for at least a few years at stud, if she nominates him for the Breeders’ Cup.
So…given Nightfight who is, stats-wise, 2 to 3 times better than Princely Moment (based on stakes wins or race earnings), and given the fact that he’ll still be costing his owner money at a stud career…you compare that to Princely Moment, who isn’t even guaranteed a stud career, and people are gonna be wary of plunking down the cash.
As you said, it’s all a question of supply and demand.
There are pretty much always “almost” stud qualified colts available for purchase (including one in the upcoming Phoenix Farms auction, who’s actually stud qualified, rather than “has the potential to be stud qualified”).
Edited to add My point with the “he could be twice as good” comment above wasn’t to prompt you to compare him to a horse that is twice as good. It was to point out that, in addition to your argument that he’s “possibly” worth 1.5mil simply because he could’ve run in twice as many races and potentially earned twice as much, he could actually be twice as good (i.e. Nightfight quality) and be worth 1.5mil even with limited starts.